
Iran’s nuclear facilities were bombed. The IAEA says the sites weren’t destroyed. Iran still holds 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.
The Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk says Iran’s capacity was “marginally degraded” but the incentives to go nuclear have “gone through the roof.” Iran goes nuclear.
Saudi Arabia, which signed a mutual defence agreement with nuclear-armed Pakistan in September 2025 and has already insisted it will not forgo uranium enrichment, gets the bomb.
South Korea, already in active discussions about nuclear latency with active US support, moves closer.
Japan reconsiders.
The nuclear club, held at nine countries for decades through enormous diplomatic effort, starts expanding. Each new member makes the next member more likely. Each new member makes accidental use more probable. Each new member makes the calculus of deterrence more complex and more fragile. This is not a prediction. Anyone with a modicum of intelligence can see a sequence is already in motion.
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